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Monday, August 09, 2004

Initiate a short call on spore market

Consider this paradox

Spore mkt, STI, is at a 3 yr high, while US market, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, and European bourses are at their year lows and has fallen through keep support levels.

The Cause
Spore markets push up by artificial, UNSUSTAINABLE factors
Politics - prolly the main reason, Temasek Holdings(with Hsien Loong's wife at the hem) takeover of NOL, could not have been timed better. It has helped propel the market convincingly through the key resistance level of 1905, which has taken all year for them to do so. Market is defn being propped up to help usher in Hsien Loong takeover, by unseen factors.

Dangers
H/w, in the midst of all these, the STI has decoupled from the rest of the world.
Oil maket, in nominal terms, is at its all time high. Although, inflation-adjusted, they are still below the peaks hit in the 70s oil crisis, they have caused jitters around the world. Decoupling, in the context of our increasingly globalized world, is senseless. In the same breath, allow me to give one example of globalizatin, terror threats ---> high oil pr( also caused by Russia's Yukos problems) ---> higher inflation ---> FED to hike interest rates --> US stock market to plunge ---> Europe stock market to free fall. Such linkage of factors are already being played out last week, only with a tiny economy like Spore, who accidentally heavily rely on the world's economy for her well-being, has not felt any effects. The point of globalization just make this process all the much faster.

Such is the paradox. External factors(world economy) vs internal factors (spore political succession), my money is on external factors and this will ultimately bring down spore mkt to reality.

Conclusion: SHORT Call...
PS: no time to talk abt taiwan issue, will defn try to talk before the end of this week...

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